The Technology Hype Cycle

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Rarely does OPT focus on specific technologies, but after multiple discussions with CEOs whose outsourcers are recommending desktop virtualization, I thought it might be a useful case example of technology hype curves. Gartner Group largely coined the term "hype cycle", defining the cycle with five phases: 1) Technology Trigger; 2) Peak of Inflated Expectations; 3) Trough of Disillusionment; 4) Slope of Enlightenment; and 5) Plateau of Productivity. Fairly self-explanatory, yes?

Desktop virtualization means that the "PC" at someone's desk is really just a shell that links to servers. Even standard applications like Microsoft Office are run from the server. The same technology applies to laptops, which then require a wireless card or network connection to function.

Why does desktop virtualization fall into the hype category and why should you care? The earlier the technology is in the hype cycle, the greater the risk to implementing and supporting the technology, and ultimately to obtaining business value for the expenditure. As of July 2009, Gartner expects mainstream adoption of the technology in 2 to 5 years, and lists it in the Trough of Disillusionment phase. I would argue for Peak of Inflated Expectations in the Midwest - we haven't seen enough full scale adoptions to get disillusioned.

Desktop virtualization's promise:

Much lower desktop support, hardware and software costs. The actually device is much cheaper and the expectation is that the time between replacements will be longer. Because there are no applications that run locally, some desktop software licenses like anti-virus can be eliminated entirely. Because the applications run off a central server, the device does not have the typical issues associated with a PC that require help desk support - there is no disk management, no desktop operating system issues and no virus management.
Simple software updates. Many applications still require updates to each PC, whether they are Microsoft XP patches or new versions of software, from Acrobat to custom created applications used by your organization. Because applications are now run centrally, they are very fast to update and the issues of being on different versions are eliminated.
Business continuity. Now, PCs at home can be used to access the servers. The virtualization takes over the PC and is immune to issues like viruses that have traditionally resulted in the prohibition of home PCs accessing the corporate network. Have you bought laptops for people just so they can work from home? This technology reduces the need for laptops for home users and also potentially reduces the need for special office space in a business continuity plan.

The challenges that come from being early in the hype curve:

Slow adoption. Even large corporations are moving slowly towards full adoption. The technical knowledge is limited to a relatively few IT resources. SMBs can rarely afford to have a dedicated team of experts, but at the same time, don't command special attention from the vendors when there are issues.
Increased reliance on infrastructure. If your network or server infrastructure goes down, no one can work. Desktop virtualization will move organizations to a high availability infrastructure if they don't already have one.
Culture change. I find it interesting what people get passionate about, and in particular, they like personalizing their work environments. Desktop virtualization no longer allows individual wallpaper and screen savers. Depending on the software in use, it may also prevent customization of options, desktop layout and other personalization. These restrictions could reduce users' productivity.

Let's assume you've established a business need for the technology. Knowing where a newer technology falls in the hype cycle is input into your decision on when to implement it. Ask yourself these questions before you commit:

Why is the person recommending the technology if it is not a mature technology? What's in it for them? What are the risks?
Are large corporations widely using the technology? If they aren't, there probably aren't many local resources available if you need help internally, or want to switch away from your primary contractor.
Does your implementer or outsourcer have existing clients up and running? Can you talk to them?

If you get satisfactory answers to these questions and wish to pursue implementation of the technology, consider starting with a pilot. Pilots are a great way to flush out the people issues that are so often the ultimate stumbling block for technology. Desktop virtualization holds a lot of promise, but many will want to wait for its Plateau of Productivity phase.