written on May 11, 2009 by Barbara Paynter
As of Friday, May 8, 2009, the news about the H1N1 (swine flu) outbreak is better. Media hysteria aside, we know this to be true:
- Most who get this particular H1N1 (swine flu) do recover.
- Outside of Mexico, few people have died from this flu around the world.
- The single best way to protect yourself from getting this particular flu is to frequently wash your hands, practice good hygiene and avoid people who are obviously ill. Those who are ill should remain at home or in the hospital.
- In our opinion, the vast majority of government and health officials have handled the potential for a pandemic flu exactly in the right manner by being objective, sticking to scripts that have been well-prepared in advance and neither overstating nor understating the situation. We disagree with politicians and news commentators who are accusing these officials of fanning the flames of hysteria in the face of what now looks like (for the time being) a decreasingly serious situation. The fact is that if officials wait too long and understate things – and then the situation takes a dramatic and dangerous turn – they will be accused of failure to adequately respond by the same politicians and commentators accusing them now of exactly the opposite.
From the May 5, 2009 edition of The New York Times:
“It’s the classic problem in public health, trying to prove a negative,” Laurie Garrett, senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of “The Coming Plague: Newly Emerging Diseases in a World Out of Balance” said. “If, after an intervention, nothing happens, then everybody says, ‘What was the big deal?’ ”
But the course swine flu will take in the Southern Hemisphere — and, this coming fall, in the Northern Hemisphere — still isn’t clear. And it’s worth considering what might have happened if public health officials hadn’t sounded the alarm.
“I think the whole world should be saying, ‘Gracias, amigos,’ to the Mexicans for the tremendous sacrifice they have made,” Ms. Garrett said. “That may have stopped what otherwise would have been a serious pandemic.
“Some people will look back and say: ‘Wasn’t that ridiculous? Didn’t we overreact?’ But in New Orleans, wouldn’t we have preferred an overreaction that built too many levees too tall, than doing nothing and allowing the city to be flooded?”
What remains troubling:
- Yes, few people have died outside of Mexico from this flu, as opposed to the more than 36,000 people who die each year in the U.S. alone from the “regular” (seasonal) flu. However, those who die from the seasonal flu are usually the very young or the very old. The majority of people who have died from the current swine flu were young and healthy.
- This H1N1 swine flu is a “new” flu. It hasn’t been seen before, which means that no one in the world has built-in immunity. If it spreads, almost everyone who “catches” this flu will become sick.
- It is quite possible we’ve seen the worst of this particular flu, that the media hype will subside and that life will return to normal, with few worries (for now) about a pandemic flu this year. What really troubles us is that complacency has already set in.
The real danger:
- It is absolutely possible this flu virus will subside throughout the hot summer – and come roaring back in the fall and winter, perhaps in a mutated and more deadly form – which is what happened during the Influenza Pandemic Flu of 1918.
- If this flu, which is currently not particularly lethal, mutates AND becomes more deadly (i.e. a higher percentage of people who get it die) and it spreads across the world, the simple fact is this: schools will close, as will movie theaters, restaurants, malls, sports venues and other places people congregate; we may not have the correct anti-flu vaccine to inoculate everyone; and our hospitals simply do not have the capacity for this kind of surge. In addition, experts suggest that as much as 40% of your workforce may not show up for work for an extended time because they are either home sick – or they are home caring for children and/or others who are sick.
From the May 2, 2009 edition of The Wall Street Journal:
Indeed, to the epidemiological community, the Influenza Pandemic of 2009 is one of the most widely anticipated diseases in history. Epidemiologists have been shouting from rooftops that a pandemic (or, a world-wide epidemic) of influenza is overdue, and that it is not a matter of "if" but "when." The current pathogen creating the threat is actually a mixture of viral genetic elements from all over the globe that have sorted, shifted, sorted, shifted, drifted and recombined to form this worrisome virus.
No one knows if the 2009 swine flu will behave like the 1918 Spanish flu that killed 50 million to 100 million world-wide, or like the 1957 Asian flu and 1968 Hong Kong flu that killed far fewer. This 2009 flu may weaken and lose its virulence, or strengthen and gain virulence -- we just do not know.
Here’s the bottom line: We have been warned.
So what does this mean for your business?
- Now is the time to pull out your crisis communications plan and make sure everything is up to date. Do you have current contact information for your staff and a mechanism in place to quickly notify them if, for example, one of your employees is diagnosed with the flu? Do you have a way for employees to quickly notify you if they are affected by the illness? Have you communicated your policies about what they should do if a member of their family becomes ill?
- While the current H1N1 (swine flu) situation remains fluid and problematic, at this point, your communications should be precautionary: dispelling rumors; telling your employees and stakeholders what preventive measures to take, what symptoms to look for, what to do if they or a family member become ill; and how to find accurate information. It’s important to let your stakeholders know that you are monitoring the situation and how they will receive updated information from you as it becomes available.
- Transparency is very important, especially in this tough economy. If employees are worried about losing their jobs, they are more likely to come to work even if they might be a carrier for the illness. Test the tone of your communications now to make sure that you’ve not only adopted the right policies but that you’re communicating those policies in a credible fashion. So that you can quickly dispel rumors, consider setting up a way for your employees to get their questions answered anonymously. This will be especially important if this develops into a full-fledged emergency.
- If you don’t have a crisis communications plan, start immediately to gather the information you need to communicate quickly and effectively. Bottom line: Everything you do should reinforce the message that there is no need to panic because you are in control of the situation.
- Our suggestions: ignore the misinformation on TV and on talk radio. Instead, spend a little time on official websites (see below for specifics) and know how to access and navigate those websites in an emergency.
- In the meantime, go ahead and enjoy that pulled pork sandwich or have dinner at your favorite Mexican restaurant. (Our favorite: Luchita’s on West 117th in Cleveland).
Resources for credible information on H1N1 (swine flu):
- Another excellent place to go for official information is http://www.pandemicflu.gov. Of particular use to you on that website will be a grid comparing the CDC and WHO alert levels. You can view that grid here: http://tinyurl.com/cqws89 This grid is especially useful for its descriptions of the mandatory restrictions that will come into play should alert levels rise.
- One Twitter feed we count on for the latest news, in real time, comes from Veratect, a private company providing timely and actionable information about emerging risks to companies and agencies around the world. You can follow their minute-by-minute Twitter feed here: https://twitter.com/Veratect
- You will find essential information about putting together a basic Business Continuity Plan (aimed at the operational side of your business or organization) at http://www.ready.gov/. If your needs are more complex, please call Hennes Communications and we can refer you to people in our community who are adept at putting those plans together.
- The Business Emergency Planning Institute and The American Red Cross are offering classes for businesses and nonprofit organizations on the subject of planning for a pandemic flu. For further information: www.bepinstitute.com
- Here’s a good Q&A about the flu virus, what to do if you’re ill, etc., from The New York Times: http://tinyurl.com/c2cjtl (free registration may be required)
- Some additional common sense advice from The New York Times about hygiene to share with your staff, in an article titled, “Swine Flu: First, Sow No Panic”: http://tinyurl.com/djtdd8 (free registration may be required)
- And finally, if you’re located in the Greater Cleveland area and would like local information about H1N1, you can check the following local health department websites. All three post a daily local update on issues as well as all press releases and statements:
Many thanks to the following people for vetting the information above:
- Rebecca Hysing, Cuyahoga County Board of Health
- Kathy Seigerst Rothenberg, Cleveland Department of Public Health
- Christy Mosier, Coshocton County Board of Health
- Tara Blackley, Cleveland Department of Public Health
- Renee Witcher-Johnson, Cleveland Department of Public Health
- Ann Gynn, Business Emergency Planning Institute